Rule V

The 40-man roster needs to be set by Friday, meaning that we'll be exposing quite a few players to the Rule V draft. Assuming that the club designates Reyes for assignment and no other impact moves are made, we'll have 8 spots open. With that said, here is the list of players who will be exposed if not moved onto the 40-man:

Juan Aponte
Cristo Arnal
Jordan Brown
Alex Castillo
Jose Constanza
Adam Davis
Kelvin De La Cruz
Kelvin Diaz
Kevin Dixon
Jason Donald
John Drennen
Ryan Edell
Damaso Espino
Jose Flores
Jared Goedert
Jeanmar Gomez
Jerad Head
Stephen Head
Frank Herrmann
Wes Hodges
Zach Jackson
Scott Lewis
Chuck Lofgren
Anillins Martinez
Richard Martinez
Matt McBride
Matt Meyer
Lucas Montero
Roman Pena
Vinnie Pestano
Yohan Pino
Carlos Rivero
Josh Rodriguez
Luis Rodriguez
Niuman Romero
Gregario Rosario
Carlton Smith
Erik Stiller
Josh Tomlin
Sung-Wei Tseng
Neil Wagner
Nick Weglarz
Steven Wright

In my opinion, this is how it is broken down:

No Brainers

• Nick Weglarz
  Easily one our best prospects who will surely be selected if not protected. He has extremely high upside and will likely be given a shot in majors by September if not earlier.
• Jeanmar Gomez
  A great depth option in the rotation who has a lot more upside than guys like Pino, Edell, Herrmann and Jackson. He would surely be taken if not protected and is close enough to major league ready that he could very well stick throughout the whole season.
• Jason Donald
  One of the few guys on the list who will probably be on our 25-man anyway. Simply put, at the least he's a utility infield who is major league ready, which, incidentally, we need at the moment.

Safe Bets

• Matt McBride
  McBride blasted into 2009 proving that he was well past A ball and performed moderately well in AA. He's been great in Arizona this fall and I think organization is fairly high on him. It's interesting that we could have 6 catchers on the 40-man with Shopppach, Marson, Toregas, Santana, McBride and Gimenez so you have to figure that at least one of them will be moved.
• Jordan Brown
  Tony has pretty much guaranteed that Brown will be rostered. I can understand why given his great performance in AAA last season and our question marks at both 1B, LF and DH (health being the question there), but given Brown's limited potential and players including Laporta, Brantley, Mills, Hodges, Crowe, Weglarz, McBride and Santana to fill those roles I would rather say goodbye myself. When it comes down to Brown or someone like De La Cruz, Pino, Hodges, Rivero or Wright I just think that the latter players have a much better chance at helping our team in a bigger way in the long-run.
• Yohan Pino
  Pino has been great in the minors and is fully major league ready. He doesn't project to be anything more than a BOR starter but he should be great as a depth option and, frankly, it makes little sense to trade for him and then expose him to the rule V draft only a few months later without giving him a shot.
• Kelvin De La Cruz
  Cruz is highest potential player on this list however some people feel that while he would likely be selected he is too inexperienced to stick on a team's 25-man for entirety of the 2010 season. While I agree that it is unlikely I think that is very foolish to take the risk as it is a high-risk, low-reward scenario given that if it works out then we'll only succeed in protecting a much lesser potential player like Jordan Brown.

Possibilities

• Wes Hodges
  In my opinion Hodges is the player who should be taking Brown's spot. I would say that they're roughly equivalent offensively but Hodges has the added benefit of being able to play 3B and, most likely, being a much better defensive 1B if need be. With speculation of Peralta being moved and Marte taking over full-time 3B duties it only makes sense to have a sensible back-up plan in the case of injury or failure, which is why I would rather not risk exposing Hodges. The counterpoint is that he's less likely to be selected due to his recent injury history and sub-par 2009, but I suppose his relative potential to impact our team overrides that in my eyes.
• Carlos Rivero
  Rivero is young and projectable, and is a player who I really do want to see go because I think a breakout year could easily be on the horizon. He's also an infielder, which is something that we lack in our system and have question marks on in at the major league level. The point against Rivero is that he isn't really major league ready and would most likely not be selected and maintained throughout the 2010 season. Ideally I would like to protect him but it makes pretty good sense if they do not, especially if they reason to believe (above speculation) that teams will not be taking him.
• Josh Tomlin
  Tomlin is a lot like Pino but is not as major-league ready. He isn't a player that I would want to see go but we simply have better choices of players to protect that fill his exact role. Again, ideally I would rather not take the risk of losing him but when push comes to shove it probably makes sense if we do.
• Steven Wright
  Unfortunately for Wright I feel that he gets lost in everything. He doesn't have enough upside that people are overly worried to lose him and he isn't major-league ready enough that a team will surely want him and stick with him. But given that he would likely relieve I feel that teams would be willing to take the chance and that he could perform will enough to stick. Given our own bullpen struggles over the past few years I hope he isn't someone that we overlook but even if we do not he's likely only a cusp option.

Controversial Rejections

• Chuck Lofgren
  Lofgren is not a good pitching prospect. He hasn't had a good season since 2006 (in A ball), doesn't strike out a lot of batters, walks more than a few batters, doesn't induce a lot of ground balls, isn't scouted to have above average "stuff" and his success in AA last season was likely due to some good fortune (0.191 BABIP). In short he hasn't performed well and nothing indicates that he has the upside to breakout. I understand that a lot of fans are grasping at straws given his former top prospect ranking in 2007, but those times are past and many scouts have even said that it was a mistake at the time.
• Josh Rodriguez
  He has been injured too often and is not close enough to major league ready. If his power stroke from 2007 returned then things may be different but at this point in time I don't Rodriguez as a candidate to be taken and surely not kept.
• John Drennen
  Again, he isn't close enough to be major league ready to be taken and kept on the 25-man. Plus I hardly think anyone thinks his hot streak in September of 2009 was an accurate reflection of his true talent level.
• Ryan Edell
  Edell simply falls into the same territory as Tomlin and Pino. He's a great depth option but we have better choices at this point in time. It isn't only a question of what we need but where would all of these pitchers go? There are only so many rotation, and even bullpen, slots available in AAA and we do not want to stunt any out of high potential pitching prospects because we wanted to protected a potential 6th starter.

So if I had 8 picks I would protect Weglarz, De La Cruz, Donald, Gomez, Pino, Hodges, McBride and Rivero in that order. If we end up making a few moves and opening up additional slot(s) Wright followed by Tomlin and Brown would be next in line but I would also consider leaving a slot or two open in hopes of picking up a decent ourselves.

Position Battles - The Bullpen

The bullpen was absolutely atrocious at the start of the 2009 season however there are quite a few reasons to think that it will improve. With the all of the question marks in the rotation it is a safe bet that the team will run a 7-man pen with 6 of the slots pretty much being locked down at the moment. It's unlikely that we will acquire any new relievers but you can bet that we will be trying to pawn Kerry Wood and his 10.5 million dollar contract off on any who will take him.

Closer

Wood will be our closer next year as long as he is on the team, and this isn't debatable. Even if our statistics-friendly new manager, Acta, wants to play around with using our best relievers in high leverage situation instead of restricting their use to save situations, it isn't an option given Wood's game-finishing incentive based contract. On the bright side, if he stays healthy there is every reason to expect him to improve in 2010, which should not only help our production but make trading him, and thus avoid paying his ridiculous 10.5 million dollar salary in full, a whole lot easier.

Player	Year	Level	IP	ERA	FIP	TBERA	GB%	HR/FB	K:BB
Kerry Wood	2009	MLB	55.0	4.25	4.15	3.83	40.0	10.8	2.25
Kerry Wood	career	MLB	1275.3	3.72	3.80	3.69	39.2	11.2	2.43

Setup

Chris Perez comes atop the bullpen depth chart more because of his potential and style rather than his expected results. He has the strike-out potential to become an elite relief arm in the back end of the pen and was nothing short of brilliant from June through August posting a 4.57 K:BB. Realistically the pipe dreams of Perez dominating next year should be discarded as he should only be expected to post an ERA hovering around 4.00, but even that is above average and quite valuable.

Player	Year	Level	IP	ERA	FIP	TBERA	GB%	HR/FB	K:BB
Chris Perez	2009	MLB	48.0	4.32	4.27	4.23	35.3	12.5	2.52
Chris Perez	career	MLB	98.7	3.92	4.13	4.08	36.8	11.8	2.24

Middle Relief

Lewis posted so-so numbers in 2009 but due the widespread struggles across the bullpen and his likely luck-impacted 2007 and 2008, he has largely been viewed as another implosion. The comforting thing about Lewis' 2009 struggles is that the only stand-out number are his homeruns allowed, which are likely to drop back down to his career norms. Assuming that his homerun numbers do return to normal we can expect Lewis be solid with an ERA around 4.30, which, again, is not mind-blowing but is at least league average.

Player	Year	Level	IP	ERA	FIP	TBERA	GB%	HR/FB	K:BB
Jensen Lewis	2009	MLB	66.3	4.61	5.18	4.91	36.8	14.8	2.14
Jensen Lewis	career	MLB	161.7	3.84	4.45	4.33	35.4	10.6	2.24

Middle Relief

Rafael Perez is the poster boy of what went wrong in the 2009 bullpen. Perez went from one of the best relievers in the game to downright horrendous as his strike numbers plummeted and his walk rates doubled. The good news is that his 7.31 ERA is incredibly misleading, even without improvements his FIP and TBERA suggest that his ERA should have been around 4.80, and there is a good reason to expect him to rebound back to his old-self. For starters, his 0.371 BABIP will surely drop closer to his career average of 0.312 and he posted a positive K:BB from June onwards. Additionally, his fastball has been increasing in speed while maintaining smilier movement and his slider's movement returned closer to his career norms during the 2nd half of the 2009 season. One thing that stands out that Perez virtually eliminated everything but his fastball and curveball in 2009 which could possibly be allowing hitters to stay a little more on guard than they had in the past. Regardless, I think it's safe to expect Perez to post an ERA around 4.15 or so and re-establish himself as a back-end reliever.

Player	Year	Level	IP	ERA	FIP	TBERA	GB%	HR/FB	K:BB
Rafael Perez	2009	MLB	48.0	7.31	4.81	4.83	48.8	11.1	1.28
Rafael Perez	career	MLB	197.3	3.91	3.61	3.43	53.3	13.2	2.83

Middle Relief

Sipp had an encouraging debut in 2009 by posting very promising strike-out numbers along with a fairly misleading ERA. Sipp's decent fastball and nasty slider have back-of-the-bullpen potential written all over them but he will need to cut back on his walks in a big way if he wants to keep his ERA below 4. In my opinion, Sipp should be expected to post an ERA around 4.30 but could resemble a pre-2009 Rafael Perez if his walks continue to decrease as they did in the 2nd half of 2009.

Player	Year	Level	IP	ERA	FIP	TBERA	GB%	HR/FB	K:BB
Tony Sipp	2009	MLB	48.0	2.93	4.20	4.05	35.2	10.9	1.92

Middle Relief

Putting injuries aside, Smith was the one non-disappointment in the projected 2009 bullpen. His ground ball numbers fell but both his walk and strikeout numbers improved. Additionally, his homerun rate is likely to return closer to his career averages and he is primed to put up yet another quality season. His number imply that he's been a tad lucky over his career but should still be expecting an ERA hovering around 4.00 next season and quite a bit lower than that if he can maintain his K:BB numbers from last year while regaining his ground ball numbers from previous years.

Player	Year	Level	IP	ERA	FIP	TBERA	GB%	HR/FB	K:BB
Joe Smith	2009	MLB	34.0	3.44	4.01	4.13	55.1	14.8	2.31
Joe Smith	career	MLB	141.7	3.49	3.75	3.86	60.7	12.8	1.95

Open Spot

With Todd and Veras as options it seems unlikely that there will be a long-man to start off the season, but with all of the questionable young starters the team may feel a need for one. This slot is pretty much up in the air in my opinion and will largely depend on both offseason moves as well as spring training performances. Who knows, maybe even our buddy Adam Miller will come out of nowhere and actually be healthy... just kidding, everyone knows that isn't possible.

Player	Year	Level	IP	ERA	FIP	TBERA	GB%	HR/FB	K:BB
Jess Todd	2009	MLB	22.3	7.66	4.84	5.30	31.6	12.5	2.22
Jose Veras	2009	MLB	24.7	4.38	4.94	4.56	40.9	9.7	1.57
Jeremy Sowers	2009	MLB	123.1	5.25	4.77	4.31	43.3	6.0	1.00
Yohan Pino	2009	AAA/AA	127.0	2.83	3.12	3.24	36.2	5.8	4.03

As a whole we look to have a bunch of relievers who are expected to be slightly better than league average but very few who are expected to be either quite a bit better or worse than league average. While that isn't a recipe for the best 'pen in baseball it should make for a significant improvement upon 2009, especially when breakout potential and our improved depth is factored into the equation. I wouldn't get your hopes up for a repeat of 2005 but I would wager that our bullpen be a whole lot closer to 2007 than 2009.

Position Battles - The Rotation

The Indians' rotation will be, without a doubt, the biggest question mark coming into the 2010 season. There is ample, in fact almost an excess of, depth, yet few players can be counted on and there is is not a dependable FOR starter to anchor the rotation. A big offseason acquisition, rebound from Carmona or Westbrook or a breakthrough by one of our many young starters could catapult the Indians into contention, but as things stand right now it would be better to hope for a quality rotation full mediocrity instead of the standard progression from greatness to replacement level.

Jake Westbrook

Westbrook underwent TJ surgery in 2008 yet is still being penciled in as our opening day starter. The recovery rate for TJ surgery is quite good but it's extremely optimistic to expect him to be 100% by the start of 2010, especially given his multiple setbacks throughout 2009. He would be a great guy to have penciled in at number 3, as it's easy to depend on him eating at least a few innings with an ERA under 4.50, but I have concerns about both his effectiveness and durability.

Player	Year	Level	IP	ERA	FIP	TBERA	GB%	HR/FB	K:BB
Jake Westbrook	2008	MLB	34.7	3.12	4.60	3.92	53.5	16.70	2.71
Jake Westbrook	career	MLB	1070.3	4.31	4.16	4.05	59.5	12.10	1.78

Aaron Laffey

Aaron Laffey is probably our most dependable starter. He has performed very well throughout his minor league career and looks to be a long-term staple in the middle of our rotation but has had a few injury setbacks and clearly lacks the "stuff" of a future FOR starter. He has Westbrook upside, especially if he increase his K:BB rate by just a bit, and at the worst should be a solid number 4 starter. I think he has benefitted for just a tad of good fortune up to this point in his career but, given his age, he is likely to improve his raw skills and, for the time being, we should expect an ERA around 4.50 from him.

Player	Year	Level	IP	ERA	FIP	TBERA	GB%	HR/FB	K:BB
Aaron Laffey	2009	MLB	121.7	4.44	4.54	4.71	48.9	7.10	1.04
Aaron Laffey	career	MLB	264.7	4.39	4.51	4.45	52.2	7.40	1.21

Justin Masterson

I know at least a few fans who have concerns about Masterson's ability to start, mainly due to his "inability to pitch to left-handed hitters"; I, however, lack such concerns. As a starter Masterson has put up more than respectable numbers (4.32 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 1.53 K:BB) and while his struggles against left-handed batters are likely to be real, they are also likely be blown out of proportion due to a small sample size (479 PA) and inflated BABIP (0.332). I wouldn't count on Masterson posting an ERA of 4.30 next season but 4.50 seems very reasonable and, unlike Laffey, he has the ability to strike guys out as well as produce tons of ground balls, meaning his upside greater than Westbrook and more along the lines of Derek Lowe or Brandon Webb (that is if he can cut back on his walks).

Player	Year	Level	IP	ERA	FIP	TBERA	GB%	HR/FB	K:BB
Justin Masterson	2009	MLB	129.3	4.52	4.04	3.71	53.6	10.40	1.98
Justin Masterson	career	MLB	1070.3	4.31	4.27	4.05	53.8	12.10	1.87

Fausto Carmona

Setting pipe-dreams aside, Carmona is likely to be a solid BOR starter. Nothing indicates that he can rebound to his 2007 self, as his velocity and movement on his pitches have changed, his opponents O-Swing% have plummeted and his opponents Contact% has skyrocketed but, at the same time, a whole lot points to Carmona being at least a little unlucky over the past two years. Something to note is that he had great improvements after his stint in the minors last season (0.88 K:BB before and 1.48 K:BB after) and assuming that his 2nd half transformation wasn't temporary and that his HR/FB and GB% regress a little closer to this career averages then Carmona should easily be a solid starter. Personally I would rather take my chances with the slew of starters we have sitting in the minor leagues and save the 11 million over 2010 and 2011 by trading Carmona to a team who desperately needs starters (Brewers? Mets?) but as long as he's on the team he will be in the rotation. My guess is that he's good for an ERA around 4.80, which actually isn't too bad for a 4th starter, but make sure that you have those visions of a new pitching coach turning him back into a Cy Young caliber pitcher are out of your head.

Player	Year	Level	IP	ERA	FIP	TBERA	GB%	HR/FB	K:BB
Fausto Carmona	2009	MLB	125.3	6.32	5.36	5.54	55.2	13.70	1.13
Fausto Carmona	career	MLB	535.7	4.69	4.59	4.30	61.2	11.60	1.43

Jeremy Sowers

Sowers receives a lot of unwarranted criticism from Indians fans for not being a FOR starter. I suppose it was that he was drafted in the first round, although his solid debut in the big leagues did not help either, but Sowers simply lacks the "stuff" to be more than a BOR-to-MOR starter. With that said, BOR starters have quite a bit of value, especially at league minimum salary, and Sowers is just that. Sowers will need to improve his K rate to be anything more than a 5th starter, but as of right now he can be expected to put up an ERA right around 4.90. Looking past the disappointment many fans see in Sowers, the Indians are left in a predicament in that Sowers has too much value to simply give away yet lacks the potential that multiple pitchers below him in the depth chart possess. My guess is that Sowers will be available via trade this offseason but if he does not get moved then he will start the season off as our 5th starter. There is a small possibility that he could start the season off as our long man given that we're clearly be taxing our bullpen quite a bit with a rotation full of young and injury plagued starters, but that is purely speculation.

Player	Year	Level	IP	ERA	FIP	TBERA	GB%	HR/FB	K:BB
Jeremey Sowers	2009	MLB	123.1	5.25	4.77	4.31	43.3	6.00	1.00
Jeremey Sowers	career	MLB	400.0	5.18	4.95	4.89	37.8	9.30	1.32

David Huff

David Huff finished off 2009 with a bang, leaving many fans automatically penciling him in to the 2009 rotation; I, however, am not one of those fans. I have Huff as the expected 6th starter, or 5th if someone above is traded or if Sowers is moved to the pen, mostly due to his lack of experience and relatively low upside. Huff is essentially Sowers but with a tad higher K-rate and thus MOR upside opposed to BOR upside. Even if he starts the season off in AAA, he is likely to be called up early in the season and I expect him to establish himself as a solid BOR option, but, like many did for Sowers, do not work up false expectations of him becoming the next Cliff Lee based a good month and half last season.

Player	Year	Level	IP	ERA	FIP	TBERA	GB%	HR/FB	K:BB
David Huff	2009	MLB	128.3	5.61	4.69	5.31	37.8	8.30	1.59
David Huff	2009	AAA	39.7	4.35	4.58	4.62	33.3	9.40	2.00

Carlos Carrasco

Unfortunately for Carrasco, he is going to viewed as Cliff Lee's replacement and is going to endure some irrational fans. The heckling already started as he was mashed during his first few major league starts, but I wouldn't start worrying just yet. Remember he is only 22 and has more potential than any other young starter, including Rondon and Carmona, who is anywhere close to ML-ready (unless Hagadone is fast-tracked). Carrasco's HR numbers will surely drop in a big way and his K:BB is likely to improve quite a bit as well. Carrasco has shown great endurance over his career and has FOR upside. It may not happen next year, or even in 2011, but all signs point to him settling into the middle the rotation at some point early in his career. He will likely start the season off in AAA but be next in line, behind Huff, to get the major league call-up, but if a player or two is moved and/or he has a strong ST he may even start out the year in the bigs.

Player	Year	Level	IP	ERA	FIP	TBERA	GB%	HR/FB	K:BB
Carlos Carrasco	2009	MLB	22.1	8.87	7.08	8.37	48.3	27.30	1.00
Carlos Carrasco	2009	AAA	160.0	4.64	3.71	4.08	40.6	10.60	3.29

Hector Rondon

Rondon finishes out the list of in-house options for starting in the 2010 Indian's rotation but is a long shot to get the gig. Rondon had a great 2009 but struggled a enough in AAA so that they'll want him to give it another go (unless there are big off season moves and/or he goes absolutely crazy in ST). Over the long term, Rondon looks to be safer bet than Carrasco to be a successful major league pitcher and, similarly, projects to be a MOR starter. My guess is that he'll get his shot sometime in June and that he neither disappoint nor blow us away.

Player	Year	Level	IP	ERA	FIP	TBERA	GB%	HR/FB	K:BB
Hector Rondon	2009	AAA	74.3	4.00	3.56	4.34	33.9	7.80	4.92
Hector Rondon	2009	AA	72.0	2.75	2.51	2.38	40.7	3.40	4.56

Free Agents

With eyes set on 2011 it's unlikely that the Indians are looking to make a big splash in the free agent market, especially on marginal upgrades, however there are a few high-potential pitchers that they may show interest in. The big names that come to mind are Rich Harden, Ben Sheet and Eric Bedard. All three are proven FOR starters with extensive injury histories, meaning that each of them could be huge upgrades that come without big money multi-year contracts. Since most teams will be kicking the tires on these three I find it unlikely that they'll pick the Indians to sign with, but they are the kind of players that we should be targeting.

Trade Targets
The Indians could potentially target young FOR-potential starters via trade as well. The problem with this approach is that teams will rarely consider trading such talent, especially if they have already had success on the major league level, leaving most options: untouchable (Lester, Lincecum, Kershaw), unproven and expensive (Buccholz) or absurdly expensive (Johnson). This leaves a few kinds of players to target: ones who have pitched well yet have had poor results (Ricky Nolasco), ones who may be on the cusp of breaking out (Jonathan Sanchez) and ones who are simply undervalued by their current team (Chad Billingsley). In my eyes Nolasco is easily the best player to target as everything points to him being a FOR starter yet his inflated 2009 ERA seriously reduces his trade value. Unfortunately the Marlins have gave little indication of being willing to trade him, but pure speculation says they may be willing to save the money on arbitration if they can refill on ML-ready prospects, especially if they move Uggla/Cantu/Johnson; a package similar to Rondon, House and Marson sounds fair but I'm sure both sides would be hesitant. Additionally, top prospects who had shaky debuts are, at times, available; Andrew Miller, in-particular, interests me, but maybe I just have a thing for younger starters on the Marlins. I doubt any such moves will be made, but it is something that should certainly be explored.

Position Battles - The Bench

I see little indication that the Indians will be having anymore or less than a 4 person bench. With question marks across the rotation in both effectiveness and consistency it looks rather obvious we will need a stocked bullpen to handle frequent 4+ inning stints. With that said, the bench is fairly complicated due to potential offseason trades and the concern of rule V exposure, but nevertheless it appears that our open slots will be to accommodate a catcher, outfielder, infielder and someone versatile enough to cover multiple corners.

Backup Catcher

The question of who will be the backup catcher is much more a question of who will be the starting catcher. If Shoppach is traded/non-tendered then Marson will start and Toregas will backup but if Shoppach stays on the team then Marson will likely remain the backup. Gimenez is a dark horse candidate but I think it's pretty clear that, if on the team, his role would more be at LF/1B/3B and only act as an emergency catcher.

Player	Year	Level	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	TBAVG	TBOBP	TBSLG	TBOPS	TBwOBA
Wyatt Toregas	2009	MLB	51	0.176	0.267	0.196	0.463	0.261	0.338	0.330	0.668	0.314
Wyatt Toregas	2009	AAA	207	0.285	0.338	0.435	0.773	0.294	0.346	0.470	0.816	0.358
Lou Marson	career	MLB	65	0.262	0.355	0.415	0.770	0.227	0.326	0.330	0.656	0.304
Lou Marson	2009	AAA	293	0.280	0.361	0.352	0.713	0.295	0.375	0.403	0.778	0.347
Chris Gimenez	2009	MLB	111	0.144	0.256	0.243	0.499	0.207	0.310	0.338	0.648	0.297
Chris Gimenez	career	MiLB	1591	0.265	0.377	0.457	0.834	0.262	0.374	0.458	0.832	0.368

Fourth Outfielder

It's hard to envision anyone other than Crowe holding down the 4th OF spot. He hasn't given any indication that he's worthy of a full-time role but he's played too well enough in the minors to simply let him go, plus he plays stellar defense in all three outfield positions. Brantley could feasible act as a 4th OFier if Laporta/Brown/Crowe/a free agent/a newly traded for player ends up taking the starting LF position, but that seems like a waste of Brantley's abilities and potential (as he would probably be sent down to AAA to play everyday) and quite unlikely.

Player	Year	Level	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	TBAVG	TBOBP	TBSLG	TBOPS	TBwOBA
Michael Brantley	2009	MLB	112	0.313	0.358	0.348	0.706	0.293	0.340	0.349	0.689	0.314
Michael Brantley	2009	AAA	457	0.267	0.350	0.361	0.711	0.317	0.394	0.415	0.809	0.378
Trevor Crowe	2009	MLB	183	0.235	0.278	0.333	0.611	0.229	0.272	0.303	0.575	0.261
Trevor Crowe	2009	AAA	186	0.301	0.404	0.403	0.807	0.302	0.404	0.420	0.824	0.373

Utility Infielder

In my opinion this is the most likely position to be taken by a free agent but I still think it will end up being Donald over a veteran who has limited upside and a slightly higher salary. Donald can play SS, 2B and 3B, as any utility infielder should, and has shown promise every year in the minors before last year (he was also injured throughout most of last season). Another possibility is running some sort of platoon between Valbuena and Donald or Marte (Marte would play 3B and Cabrera and Peralta would shift back to SS and 2B) where we wouldn't exactly have a full time utility infield but rather two part time players who bounce around from time to time.

Player	Year	Level	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	TBAVG	TBOBP	TBSLG	TBOPS	TBwOBA
Jason Donald	2009	AAA	269	0.238	0.303	0.342	0.645	0.262	0.325	0.379	0.704	0.308
Jason Donald	career	MiLB	1366	0.283	0.365	0.433	0.798	0.275	0.358	0.423	0.781	0.348
Luis Valbuena	2009	MLB	368	0.250	0.298	0.416	0.714	0.259	0.307	0.402	0.709	0.313
Luis Valbuena	2009	AAA	78	0.321	0.430	0.538	0.968	0.363	0.465	0.513	0.978	0.486

Remaining Bench Spot

The remaining bench spot will most likely go to someone who can cover our less stable positions, most notably 3B and LF\1B. This is hard position to predict because it is extremely contingent on if anyone is traded, but despite my desire or Peralta to be traded during the offseason I see it more likely that it will be the mid-season -- in which case Marte will would be favorite to earn the 3B/1B spot. If Peralta is moved and Marte is named the starting 3B then it is likely that Jordan Brown will come in to spot at LF, 1B and, possibly, DH. The dark horse in this case is Wedge's buddy Chris Gimenez. With his less than impressive performances in both the minors and big leagues (both offensively and defensively) and his ability to stay in the minors (Marte is out of options) it seems very unlikely that he'll earn a starting spot on the 25-man but it is possible that he could come as the super non-infield utility guy (able to play 3B/1B/LF/C).

Player	Year	Level	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	TBAVG	TBOBP	TBSLG	TBOPS	TBwOBA
Andy Marte	2009	MLB	155	0.232	0.293	0.400	0.693	0.257	0.315	0.445	0.760	0.339
Andy Marte	2009	AAA	300	0.327	0.369	0.593	0.962	0.319	0.362	0.583	0.945	0.402
Jordan Brown	2009	AAA	397	0.332	0.375	0.514	0.889	0.323	0.366	0.508	0.874	0.376
Chris Gimenez	2009	MLB	111	0.144	0.256	0.243	0.499	0.207	0.310	0.338	0.648	0.297
Chris Gimenez	career	MiLB	1591	0.265	0.377	0.457	0.834	0.262	0.374	0.458	0.832	0.368

Position Battles - The Outfield (and DH)

The outfield (and DH) is the most stable and unchanged area of our roster and, not surprisingly, it's also the strongest area of our lineup. We continue our 5-year long search for a respectable left-fielder but at least we finally done with the Dellucci/Michaels era and have some promising young talent in the wings. Health is the biggest concern of this group but if everyone stays healthy then we are almost guaranteed to have a productive lineup.

Left Field

As mentioned earlier, left field is the only questionable position in our stocked outfield (and DH). Michael Brantley's respectable debut makes him to clear favorite to start the season off in LF and, given each players' similar performance in AAA (all within .05 wOBA), Brantley stands out as a 22 year old among two 25 year olds. However, Brantley's age may actually end hurting him as Jordan Brown could be rostered to avoid super two exposure, in which case Crowe and Brown could possibly share LF duties while Brantley awaits an injury or extended struggle down in AAA.

Player	Year	Level	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	TBAVG	TBOBP	TBSLG	TBOPS	TBwOBA
Michael Brantley	2009	MLB	112	0.313	0.358	0.348	0.706	0.293	0.340	0.349	0.689	0.314
Michael Brantley	2009	AAA	457	0.267	0.350	0.361	0.711	0.317	0.394	0.415	0.809	0.378
Trevor Crowe	2009	MLB	183	0.235	0.278	0.333	0.611	0.229	0.272	0.303	0.575	0.261
Trevor Crowe	2009	AAA	186	0.301	0.404	0.403	0.807	0.302	0.404	0.420	0.824	0.373
Jordan Brown	2009	AAA	397	0.332	0.375	0.514	0.889	0.323	0.360	0.508	0.874	0.376

Center Field

This isn't a discussion. Our poster boy, our best player, our very own superman, Grady Sizemore, will be holding down center field. He was injured throughout the year and, consequently, had a less than expected season but with surgery in September and ample time to rehab during the offseason he should be all set to produce as well as ever. Health is really the concern as Grady has performed in past, is currently in his prime and has seemingly endless talent.

Player	Year	Level	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	TBAVG	TBOBP	TBSLG	TBOPS	TBwOBA
Grady Sizemore	2009	MLB	436	0.248	0.343	0.445	0.788	0.257	0.352	0.457	0.809	0.354
Grady Sizemore	career	MLB	3131	0.275	0.367	0.485	0.852	0.273	0.365	0.470	0.835	0.368

Right Field

Choo locked down RF this year after demonstrating that 2008 was not a fluke. He was most the productive hitter on the team in 2009 and projects to be among top producers next year (along with Sizemore, Hafner and possibly a breakout Laporta). He even silenced early season concerns about his defense by finishing 2009 with an acceptable -0.7 UZR/150 in the OF. I still feel that Choo has been a tad lucky in his time at Cleveland, but he shows signs of steady improvement and even after luck adjustments looks to be one of the better RF in the game.

Player	Year	Level	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	TBAVG	TBOBP	TBSLG	TBOPS	TBwOBA
Shin-Shoo Choo	2009	MLB	583	0.300	0.394	0.489	0.883	0.289	0.385	0.462	0.847	0.376
Shin-Shoo Choo	career	MLB	1092	0.296	0.386	0.491	0.877	0.286	0.378	0.457	0.835	0.369

Designated Hitter

Travis Hafner has had some big time health issues over the past few seasons. He had surgery last offseason and, not surprisingly, rebounded to his production level circa 2007. The days of "Pronk" look to be in the past but with regular rest and a gradually improving shoulder we can expect Hafner to produce at a well above average level (~0.370 wOBA) when he actually plays (~70% of the time). Various players off the bench will be filling at DH as Hafner takes every couple of days off, but by the middle-to-end of the season things could interesting as prospects, like Santana, Weglarz, Mills and Hodges, will be looking for ABs. Of course there is always the possibility that surgery cured Hafner's shoulder problems and with another offseason of rehab he'll be an elite hitter playing each and every day... I just wouldn't hold your breath.

Player	Year	Level	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	TBAVG	TBOBP	TBSLG	TBOPS	TBwOBA
Travis Hafner	2009	MLB	338	0.272	0.355	0.470	0.825	0.294	0.374	0.513	0.887	0.379
Travis Hafner	career	MLB	1092	0.282	0.388	0.529	0.917	0.281	0.387	0.522	0.909	0.389

Down the road it's unlikely that manny prospects will come into play in the OF (and DH). With both CF and RF locked up for the foreseeable future and DH occupied as long as Hafner is healthy enough to play regularly, there is not much room new talent outside of LF (pending injuries of course). Weglarz is one the big name prospect who could see playing time at LF in the mid-to-late season and a slew of hitters, including: Weglarz, Mills and Hodges, could all spend a bit of time relieving Hafner at DH.

Position Battles - The Infield

We started the 2009 season with Victor Martinez at C, Ryan Garko at 1B, Asdrubal Cabrera at 2B, Jhonny Peralta at SS and Mark DeRosa at 3B. Now, coming into the 2010 season, we no longer have Victor, Garko or DeRosa and both Cabrera and Peralta have changed positions. After less than stellar auditions from a slew of prospects and speculation of off-season trades, quite a few question marks remains across the infield.

Catcher

With a slew of catching candidates, it's hard to predict who is going to be the opening day starter; however, the one thing that is clear is that Carlos Santana looks to be the catcher by the end of the season. As of right now, Kelly Shoppach is best option to open the season as the starting catcher but given his higher costing contract (~3.5 million) it's fairly likely that he will be traded during the offseason. With Carlos Santana looking to stay down in AAA until super two status is no longer a concern, Lou Marson looks to be a favorite to start with Wyatt Toregas as a fine backup and possibly Chris Gimenez acting as the emergency catcher (pending what happens at 3B/LF).

Player	Year	Level	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	TBAVG	TBOBP	TBSLG	TBOPS	TBwOBA
Lou Marson	career	MLB	65	0.262	0.355	0.415	0.770	0.227	0.326	0.330	0.656	0.304
Lou Marson	2009	AAA	293	0.280	0.361	0.352	0.713	0.295	0.375	0.403	0.778	0.347
Kelly Shoppach	2009	MLB	271	0.214	0.335	0.399	0.734	0.244	0.360	0.433	0.793	0.356
Kelly Shoppach	career	MLB	909	0.241	0.327	0.449	0.776	0.236	0.322	0.435	0.757	0.330
Carlos Santana	2009	AA	450	0.291	0.416	0.538	0.954	0.313	0.433	0.580	1.013	0.432

First Base

Matt Laporta is going to start somewhere, and given Brantley's fine debut in LF and the lack of a decent stop-gap at 1B, it looks like it will be at 1B. Jordan Brown is a possibility as Acta may show more love than Wegde but that is even then it is more likely that it would be part time duty with Laporta splitting time between 1B and LF. Andy Marte got some playing at time at 1B last season but, in my eyes, that was only to give him major league ABs. It's possible that Marte could get some playing time at 1B this season but given his superior defense at 3B and lack-luster bat for a first baseman it would be a poor use of resources and it should not be a regular occurrence.

Player	Year	Level	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	TBAVG	TBOBP	TBSLG	TBOPS	TBwOBA
Matt Laporta	2009	MLB	181	0.254	0.308	0.442	0.750	0.273	0.325	0.456	0.781	0.341
Matt Laporta	2009	AAA	339	0.298	0.387	0.528	0.915	0.298	0.387	0.525	0.912	0.397
Jordan Brown	2009	AAA	397	0.332	0.375	0.514	0.889	0.323	0.366	0.508	0.874	0.376
Andy Marte	2009	MLB	155	0.232	0.293	0.400	0.693	0.257	0.315	0.445	0.760	0.339
Andy Marte	2009	AAA	300	0.327	0.369	0.593	0.962	0.319	0.362	0.583	0.945	0.402

Second Base

With Wedge managing it looked as if Valbuena had solidly locked down 2B for himself but with Acta I wouldn't be so sure. Valbuena had pretty poor debut and Asdrubal Cabrera is thought of by some scouts as a better defensive 2B than SS and his UZR data backs the assertion up (career UZR/150 -0.3 at 2B opposed to -4.9 at SS). Factoring that, along with Marte's superior production over Valbuena, it appears that, if Peralta remains on the team, the optimal alignment would be Cabrera at 2B, Peralta at SS and Marte at 3B. Even with Jason Donald is also a dark horse candidate, his down 2009 season was likely due to injury, I would still name Valbuean the favorite and simply note that it's a tad premature to be chipping his name in stone.

Player	Year	Level	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	TBAVG	TBOBP	TBSLG	TBOPS	TBwOBA
Luis Valbuena	2009	MLB	368	0.250	0.298	0.416	0.714	0.259	0.307	0.402	0.709	0.313
Luis Valbuena	2009	AAA	78	0.321	0.430	0.538	0.968	0.363	0.465	0.513	0.978	0.486
Asdrubal Cabrera	2009	MLB	523	0.308	0.361	0.438	0.799	0.293	0.347	0.389	0.736	0.333
Asdrubal Cabrera	career	MLB	1034	0.287	0.355	0.411	0.766	0.281	0.349	0.384	0.733	0.333
Jason Donald	2009	AAA	269	0.238	0.303	0.342	0.645	0.262	0.325	0.379	0.704	0.308
Jason Donald	career	MiLB	1366	0.283	0.365	0.433	0.798	0.275	0.358	0.423	0.781	0.348

Shortstop

Cabrera looks to be both the short term and long term shortstop of the future, but with new management there is the possibility of moving Peralta back to SS and Cabrera back to 2B. I think it is a better win-now formation but with eyes more on 2011 and forward than 2010 and Peralta likely be traded during the mid-season, if not off-season, it's rather unlikely.

Player	Year	Level	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	TBAVG	TBOBP	TBSLG	TBOPS	TBwOBA
Asdrubal Cabrera	2009	MLB	523	0.308	0.361	0.438	0.799	0.293	0.347	0.389	0.736	0.333
Asdrubal Cabrera	career	MLB	1034	0.287	0.355	0.411	0.766	0.281	0.349	0.384	0.733	0.333
Jhonny Peralta	2009	MLB	582	0.254	0.316	0.375	0.691	0.258	0.319	0.378	0.697	0.312
Jhonny Peralta	career	MLB	3101	0.266	0.331	0.425	0.756	0.265	0.330	0.423	0.753	0.332

Third Base

Peralta is likely to be traded, in which case Andy Marte is the favorite to take over full-time duty at 3B. However, even if Peralta stays here it is possible that Marte stays at 3B and that Peralta moves back to SS. I have to say that considering Peralta's contract (4.6 million), his inferior defense and his comparable offensive production it sure seems like Andy Marte is the guy to go with here, alas I would say that as things stand right now Peralta is the favorite to start the season at the hot corner as he may not be traded until mid-season.

Player	Year	Level	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	TBAVG	TBOBP	TBSLG	TBOPS	TBwOBA
Jhonny Peralta	2009	MLB	582	0.254	0.316	0.375	0.691	0.258	0.319	0.378	0.697	0.312
Jhonny Peralta	career	MLB	3101	0.266	0.331	0.425	0.756	0.265	0.330	0.423	0.753	0.332
Andy Marte	2009	MLB	155	0.232	0.293	0.400	0.693	0.257	0.315	0.445	0.760	0.339
Andy Marte	2009	AAA	300	0.327	0.369	0.593	0.962	0.319	0.362	0.583	0.945	0.402

Down the road a few other prospects may came into play by mid-season. As previously mentioned, Carlos Santana will almost certainly be the starting catching by mid-season and a few other prospects may regain their prospect status with fine numbers in the minors (ala Andy Marte 2009). Names that come to mind include : Wesley Hodges (3B), Jason Donald (2B/SS/3B), Carlos Rivero (SS/2B) and Beau Mills (1B). Additionally a couple players could be a super fast-tracked to the big leagues, but I find it extremely unlikely that Lonnie Chisenhall (3B) will be considered before September or that Jason Kipnis (2B), Cord Phelps (2B), Karexon Sanchez (2B) or Kyle Bellows (3B) could jump that may levels by the end of 2010.

TBAVG vs. AVG - Victor Martinez 2009

Some may wonder why I prefer Trajectory Based statistics over their traditional counterparts, so hopefully this simple graphic will help illustrate why I do.

As you can see, Trajectory Based Statistics have less fluctuation and give a more accurate and consistent idea of how a player is actually performing. This is also made clear by a vastly smaller standard deviation (0.137 for TBAVG vs. 0.400 for AVG). I realize that a one player sample size is essentially trivial, but this is merely intended to illustrate the the larger trend that exists throughout the statistics as a whole.